‘Will you bet the farm on winning tomorrow?’: Experts quizzed on US election result

Matt Frei: So at the beginning of the programme, we said that there are two very divergent tones in these final hours, in these final speeches. One is, you know, hope and change – let’s stay happy – she didn’t even mention him by name. And the other one, instead of ‘calling her names’ very much, but also channelling the rage that exists in much of America. Who’s got the tone right, Susan?
Susan Platt: I think Kamala has the tone right. If I could right now, if I could sing, I would sing since we’re on the rooftop, because we’ve got two polls, one from Iowa today, which shows Kamala Harris closing very strong – and the Marist poll just came out a few minutes ago showing us four points up nationally. Now, I know that’s not – we have to go state by state – but if I was going our way, it could be a good night for us, a very good night. And we could see heels in the White House.
Matt Frei: But that Iowa poll was a few days ago – I think it was Friday night or Saturday night. But it’s an outlier of a poll, isn’t it?
Susan Platt: Well, let’s see – Ann Selzer is always right, almost always right, within a point.
Matt Frei: Okay. What do you think Matt?
Matt Terrill: Well, I think the voters decide what the tone is and what we’ve seen…
Matt Frei: Where do you think the tone is? Do you think he’s got it right?
Matt Terrill: I think if he’s focusing on the economy, inflation, border security, that’s the right tone. And I think in these final hours, that’s what we should be talking about.
Matt Frei: But he’s not talking about that, is he? He’s talking about that and lots of other things. He’s calling her names and he’s calling her stupid. You know, he’s saying the election’s already been stolen before the final votes even be cast.
Matt Terrill: Well, we’ve seen a lot of name-calling in this race. We saw President Biden, with what many voters took, calling Trump supporters garbage. So, look, the bottom line is this. I honestly think that voters right now are less concerned about the rhetoric and about the records of these candidates. I honestly think the question is this – is this race about policy or is it about personality? And I think a lot of voters out there who decide this race, they care more about policy.
Matt Frei: So he might win on policy, especially when it comes to the economy, because people felt they were better off four years ago. But he loses on personality, doesn’t he?
Matt Terrill: But the voters who are not going to vote for him based on that are going to vote for him anyways. This race comes down to those select 2% undecided voters, low to mid propensity voters. And there’s a lot of optimism right now among the Trump campaign. You’re seeing early voting up for the Trump campaign right now compared to 2016 and 2020 – those are big signs, I think, that they’re going the right direction here.
Matt Frei: Susan, she’s got a very difficult circle to square, doesn’t she? She’s got to be both an incumbent. She’s got to defend the record of her administration. And she has to be a change agent. Has she really been able to do that?
Susan Platt: I think she has. I think the American people – look, it’s been baked in – 47, 47, we’re a split country. They know Donald Trump. What we’re fighting for is the final 10%. And Kamala Harris has introduced herself, brought her policies out on the opportunity economy, which I find very difficult to say, talking about small businesses, women, women, women. All the men talk about is the economy – and it is the economy – ‘we all feel we need a new, better job’. But women are coming out to vote. And I do believe Donald Trump’s comments in the last week or so, denigrating so many people, has changed a lot of the evangelicals in Iowa, which means it’s changed a lot of the evangelicals in other Midwest parts of the country. So I think that is something that I’m going to look for on election night.
Matt Frei: People keep talking about women in – not just in this election – but in other elections as well. We had security moms and soccer moms and all that. But what about the men that he’s been appealing to, white men and African-American men that haven’t always gone to the polls, but might do so now?
Susan Platt: Well, we’ll see if he can get them out. I think women have – when you take a right away from somebody, that they fought for for 50 years, that’s pretty hard to overcome. That’s pretty hard for us to sit down on.
Matt Frei: Okay. Are men going to show up for Trump?
Matt Terrill: Well, I think if you look at the polling right now, it looks like they are. Now, look, here’s the deal. There are two lanes of votes that both these campaigns care about right now. It’s the early vote, which republicans have been doing far better in, compared to 2020 and 2016, and tomorrow – election day voting. Republicans tend to do quite well with election day voting. So, look, I think here’s the deal. Those are two lanes that these campaigns are focused on. Tomorrow is a big day, particularly for the Republican Party and the Trump campaign, given that historically Republicans turn out on election day. But based on the data we’re seeing, President Trump, right now, is making inroads in Hispanic voters, black voters, young voters, and with men right now, young men under the age of 30, he’s at 50%.
Matt Frei: But if he loses this election, is it because of Roe v Wade? The three conservative justices that he appointed to the court who overturned abortion rights in the court, and women, the majority of women, won’t have forgiven him for that.
Matt Terrill: There is no question the issue of abortion is an issue that voters care about in this race. And look, he said that he’s not going to sign a national abortion ban. That’s what he has said throughout this campaign. But look, as much as that issue matters in this race, there are other issues that these voters are focused in on. If you look at all the polling in this race, top of their list, the economy, inflation and border security. And on those issues – President Trump right now has been leading on those issues. He’s been leading on those issues throughout this campaign. That’s why many would argue he’s having great success in the polls.
Matt Frei: Why is it, Susan, that an economy – that actually in terms of the headline numbers – is doing quite well – even the Wall Street Journal, which is conservative, was saying the other day, ‘Well done, America’. The Economist, on its front page was saying ‘this is an exceptional economy’ and yet – there are dozens of people I’ve personally spoken to in the last ten days, in the swing states, who say we’re not feeling the improvement and they’re not feeling our pain. And by that they mean your candidate.
Susan Platt: Well, we need to do more. Obviously, we all need to do more. We’re coming back from a pandemic – a once in 100 years pandemic.
Matt Frei: But could you have done it earlier, more early in the campaign?
Susan Platt: No I’m not sure that we could. We’re leading the world in terms of coming back – our economy from Covid. But I was here, a couple of blocks away, last Tuesday and the feeling and the people you saw pouring into the Ellipse was something I’ve never seen in my life. I think we can now make a choice where America wants to be and who we want to be. And I believe we’re going to pick hope and change over…
Matt Frei: Okay. Briefly and finally, to both of you. First to you, Susan. If she loses, will your former boss, Joe Biden, go down as the worst desk blocker in history – because he should have bowed out much earlier – when it was obvious that he couldn’t run?
Susan Platt: No, he brought our economy back. He saved so many of us from losing our lives from Covid. And we have never – we’ve not gone into a recession, we’ve not gone into a depression. And we’re coming back strong, he will not.
Matt Frei: Matt – if your guy loses, Donald Trump, could it be because of an off-colour joke told by a comedian in Madison Square Garden insulting Puerto Ricans – and those Puerto Rican swing voters in Pennsylvania, and there are thousands of them – have said, ‘no thanks’. How ironic would that be?
Matt Terrill: Well, if he loses the race, it’s not because of that joke. It was a joke that was poor taste, it wasn’t funny. Look, the Trump campaign released a statement saying that Trump – that that joke did not align with their values. Look, here’s the deal. I think right now, if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re feeling good going into tomorrow. I think he feels we’ve been leading on the key issues that voters care about, the economy, inflation and border security. It’s a unique election – President Trump has been in the White House, so has Vice President Harris. And I think right now, voters are going to compare and contrast.
Matt Frei: Would you bet your farm on winning tomorrow?
Matt Terrill: I think if you look at all the indicators – President Trump should win tomorrow night based on most of the…
Matt Frei: You’re not betting your farm. Would you bet the farm on winning tomorrow? Oh no one’s betting their farm…
Susan Platt: Almost, almost!
Matt Frei: It’s a cop-out from both of you, my goodness! I’m disappointed.
Matt Terrill: I tell you what, I think President Trump is poised. If you look at the indicators – poised to have a good night tomorrow night.
Matt Frei: Okay. Let’s see.
Susan Platt: High heels in the White House!